Negotiations aimed at reaching a new deal concerning Gaza have commenced in Cairo, Egypt. Gaza has been under Israeli aggression since October 7th, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties. These talks follow the arrival of an Israeli delegation led by the head of Shin Bet, as well as the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, William Burns, and President Biden's envoy, Brett McGurk.
According to Israeli media, the Israeli delegation will discuss several issues, including attempts to bridge gaps from a security perspective of the deal.
The atmosphere of the negotiations has been overshadowed by recent statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which included setting stringent conditions for any potential agreement with the resistance.
Internal Israeli factors complicate matters further, with new warnings from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who described the potential deal as "foolish." Conversely, opposition leader Yair Lapid reiterated his promise to provide Netanyahu with governmental support if the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas leads to the resignation of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Finance Minister. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant assured the families of prisoners that every effort is being made not to miss the current opportunity to reach a deal.
On the other side, Hamas has warned of the catastrophic consequences of ongoing events in Gaza, holding the Israeli government and its military responsible for derailing ceasefire negotiations. In a statement, Hamas pointed out that Netanyahu continues to obstruct truce talks by persisting in genocide and displacement attempts, despite the flexibility and positivity shown by the movement to facilitate reaching an agreement to stop the aggression. Hamas called on mediators to "intervene to put an end to Netanyahu's maneuvers and crimes," urging the international community and the United Nations to "fulfill their legal and humanitarian responsibilities and pressure to stop the genocide."
Ashraf Al-Ashry, managing editor of the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram, expressed skepticism about any breakthrough in the negotiations, noting that the Israeli delegation continues to resort to evasive tactics. While acknowledging recent successes, Al-Ashry pointed out that the Israeli delegation in Cairo is still operating under Netanyahu's directives, with no mandate to make any concessions.
In an interview with Al-Araby TV from Cairo, Al-Ashry stated that reliance on the Israeli side is premature, as Netanyahu aims to secure as many gains as possible under indefinite American pressure and seeks to leverage mediators. He emphasized that without significant Israeli engagement, the negotiations could regress to square one.
Al-Ashry explained that Netanyahu employs a "last-chance" strategy, akin to a revolving door policy: as negotiations near a breakthrough and Hamas shows more flexibility, Netanyahu becomes more rigid, fearing that a deal would undermine his position, leading to the collapse of his far-right government and his potential prosecution.
Imtanes Shihadeh, a researcher at Mada al-Carmel Center, clarified that Netanyahu and the Israeli government returned to the negotiations out of necessity due to Hamas's changing stance. However, Netanyahu immediately issued a statement, bypassing security leadership consultation, reasserting his conditions, notably ensuring that no ceasefire or prisoner exchange agreement halts the war. In an interview with Al-Araby TV from Haifa, Shihadeh noted that Netanyahu remains firm on preventing the return of what he terms "militants" to northern Gaza.
Shihadeh also referenced an Israeli Channel 12 report from a journalist close to the right-wing, indicating that substantial sections of Hamas's tunnels in Gaza remain operational and pose a threat, reflecting some military officers' reluctance toward the agreement.
William Lawrence, a professor of political science at the American University, expressed optimism since both Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of the deal. He noted that Burns's involvement signals a potential agreement. In an interview with Al-Araby TV from Washington, Lawrence highlighted that Israel is more interested in closing borders and the Rafah crossing than in an agreement with Hamas. He believed that Egyptians would cooperate on border issues if Israel agrees to a deal with Hamas.
Lawrence stated that while the U.S. aligns with Israel on some aspects, it disagrees on post-war strategy and certain tactics. He mentioned that the U.S. supports Israel's right to self-defense and its actions in Gaza, but it does not favor Netanyahu's strategy, hence the calls from some U.S. officials for Netanyahu's replacement as soon as possible.