Israeli military analyst Amos Harel ruled out today, Friday, the possibility of reaching an exchange deal and ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian resistance factions before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s expected speech in the U.S. Congress on July 24.
In an article for Haaretz, Harel stated that the response Hamas provided to mediators last week regarding U.S. President Joe Biden’s exchange deal proposal showed a certain degree of flexibility, mainly concerning the transition between the deal's stages and the possibility of discussing issues beyond the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released.
However, he considered that there are no reasons for optimism about achieving the deal despite the shuttle rounds by Biden’s envoys to the region, noting that “the more logical estimate is that Netanyahu will delay his response until after his speech in Congress.”
The military analyst went on to explain his perspective, saying that Netanyahu can always find an excuse to stall the negotiations, citing his statements last Sunday where he set conditions for the success of the deal.
Netanyahu set four conditions for accepting the deal: preventing any militant from returning to northern Gaza, maintaining the Israeli army’s presence in the Netzarim corridor, continuing control over the Philadelphi Route and the Rafah crossing to prevent weapon smuggling from Egypt, and allowing the Israeli army to resume the war until its objectives are achieved, as he claimed.
Harel described these conditions as unrealistic, targeting to ensure that nothing progresses in the talks, pointing out that Hamas is not inclined to agree to them.
He added that Netanyahu is trying to market his stance as based on opinion polls that reinforce his hardline position, especially on releasing security prisoners in Israeli prisons. However, Harel saw the core problem in Netanyahu’s reliance on his partners, far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir (Interior) and Bezalel Smotrich (Finance), who previously declared they would dismantle the coalition if he went towards a deal, along with his lack of confidence in the safety net provided by several opposition parties should he agree to it.
Opposition Support and Internal Challenges
Opposition leader Yair Lapid had pledged to support Netanyahu with a "safety net" if the latter agreed to a deal that includes the return of Israeli prisoners from Gaza.
The writer then shifted to discussing the damages of the ongoing war and its extension to the northern front with Hezbollah, recalling the 2006 Lebanon War, which he described as a "failed war" despite not ending in defeat. He pointed out that the war was disappointing, revealing the limited capabilities of the Israeli army.Harel noted the gap between Israel’s perceived strength before the war and its image now, with neighbors, friends, and enemies starting to doubt it after being caught in a strategic trap created by an unresolved war in the south and north, describing Israel now as a "wounded snake in its hardest state."
After listing Netanyahu’s government’s internal crises, including the crisis of the Haredi and rabbis’ laws, Harel described Israel’s strategy under Netanyahu as “completing a pyramid scheme that continued for years, which collapsed on October 7 and revealed its failure.”
He added that “Israel under Netanyahu did not stop the Iranian nuclear project, and the threat of rockets and missiles around Israel increased, stripping the Israeli army of its capacity as a protector of Israelis,” noting that “the Palestinian issue was not put into a deep sleep.”
Harel asserted that Netanyahu is in a state of collapse, describing him as “the political magician who is no longer able to continue selling the same empty checks.”
He concluded his article by saying, “At the end of this long and intricate journey, the moment of truth will come when it becomes clear that it is no longer possible to fool all the people all the time.”