British writer David Hearst stated that the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has lured Israel into a true regional war on all fronts, which will not be easily ended.
In a report published on the "Middle East Eye" website, Hearst explained that one of the most important unanswered questions about the "Al-Aqsa Flood" attack carried out by Hamas on October 7th is: What did Hamas think would happen as a result of its attack on Israel in this manner?
He noted that some initially answered this question with the chaos theory, which seemed accurate at first. The operation was initially intended to strike Israeli military targets and take high-value hostages but spiraled out of control due to the unexpected collapse of the Israeli Gaza Division. Hamas expected most of its 1,400 operatives who crossed the fence that day to be killed, but most returned alive. However, as the months of this war passed, confidence in the chaos theory gradually waned.
Hearst pointed out that Hamas's allies did not immediately follow its lead. Allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran were not initially enthusiastic about responding to the call from Mohammed Deif, the military commander of Hamas's Al-Qassam Brigades, to join the fight against Israel. Statements from Hezbollah leaders and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that this war was “100% Palestinian in decision and execution.”
By mid-November, it seemed that Hamas's strategy to trigger a regional war had begun to falter. However, as Israel preemptively struck more Hezbollah targets, the Lebanese group responded in kind, and Yemen's Houthi movement joined the confrontation by attacking ships in the Red Sea.
The turning point came in April when Israel struck the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, prompting a massive retaliatory attack from Iran on Israeli targets, including military bases. Hearst stated that the "red line" for a regional war had been crossed, making such a war a matter of time.
Hearst emphasized that Hamas's strategy succeeded. He questioned whether this was the actual strategy planned by the movement and concluded it was, citing statements made by Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, in 2022. Sinwar had said, "Escalating resistance in all its forms and making the occupation pay the price for its occupation and settlements is the only way to free our people and achieve their goals of liberation and return. Those who do not initiate today will regret it tomorrow. The credit goes to those who take initiative and prove their sincerity. Do not let anyone drag you back into internal disputes and conflicts. We do not have time for that while the threat of fascism looms over us."
Hearst noted that Sinwar had also given a speech predicting the future accurately, saying, "Within several months, and in my estimation, not exceeding a year, we will force the occupation to choose between applying international law and respecting international decisions—by withdrawing from the West Bank and Jerusalem, dismantling settlements, releasing prisoners, and allowing the return of refugees—or being in a stark contradiction with the international community’s will, isolating itself powerfully and ending its integration in the region and the world."
Hearst confirmed that this is precisely what happened: Israel has become internationally isolated like never before. It is now under scrutiny in two of the highest international courts, while its main supporters (the United States and the United Kingdom) are engaged in a defensive battle to halt the escalation of international sanctions.
Hearst mentioned that a partial reconciliation between Shia and Sunni factions occurred after the "Al-Aqsa Flood," significantly transforming the regional landscape. Israel had always thrived on the "divide and rule" policy, knowing that if Sunni and Shia forces converged, its maneuvering capability would be limited. This is now happening, with real consequences.
He argued that if Israel had succumbed to pressures from U.S. President Joe Biden and the United Nations to end the war in Gaza without dismantling Hamas, it would have faced a tactical defeat leading to the disintegration of the right-wing alliance. However, if Hamas continued the war in Gaza regardless of the human cost, it would lead to a regional war that the U.S. could not contain or stop.
Hearst added that this is the path Israel has currently set for itself. Even if a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel is reached, it is now fully understood in Israel that this would only be a temporary respite, an opportunity for army reservists to recover before the inevitable attack on Lebanon.
He continued, noting that Palestinians in Gaza have endured significant suffering over the past nine months. Starvation is harsher than random bombings. The cost of this strategy is high. However, under a brutal occupation aimed at forcing as many Palestinians as possible to leave, armed resistance with a leadership that refuses to surrender or flee into exile has become the only option for Palestinians everywhere. This represents a permanent change in the calculations Israel has made for decades to subdue the Palestinian population and the region.
Hearst concluded by stating that no matter what happens now, the strategy adopted by Hamas has been more effective than imagined nine months ago. Israel now faces a real war on all fronts, a war that will not be easily stopped.